Since Russia has invaded Ukraine February 2022, there have been quite a number of geo-political issues surrounding Odessa due to it being a major shipping port of Ukraine and a major export site for Ukraine’s grain shipments to the world.
Russians made multiple attempts to occupy Odessa, but Ukraine would not give it up.
What would have happened if Russians take Odessa? Ukraine will not fall but would suffer greatly.
In the words of Jay Dee: ‘Russians taking over Odessa would have caused a larger regional food crisis and more of the world than already is would have condemned and turned against Russia.
However Ukraine might fall if Russians take over Odessa region. To take over Odessa city is another thing from taking over Odessa region.
‘Russians Taking over Odessa region means Ukraine would become a non-viable landlocked state, and its chances of repelling the Russians permanently would be woefully diminished,’ Chad Nagle said.
Odessa region is supplied with arms and reinforcements primarily from the north. The Russians have blockaded the province by sea and still occupy Kherson to the east.
Odessa region borders Romania (a NATO member) to the south but also Moldova to the west.
Within Moldova’s internationally recognized borders is the separatist region of Transnistria, where the remnants of Russia’s Operational Group of Russian Forces (once the 14th Guards Army) are based.
‘If Russia uses its forces in Transnistria to attack Odessa from the west, it could create a very serious flashpoint, especially if Moscow has supplemented its forces in Transnistria since February,’ Chad Nagle said.
However, the good news for the Ukrainians is that Ukraine has already defeated Russia’s attempt to take over the country and is counter-attacking in the limited areas where Russian military are infesting their territory.
There is no possibility that Russia will take Odessa and will likely lose their hold on Donbas.